Zachary Cohen takes a look at a Week 16 meeting between the Texans and Chiefs.On Saturday, December 21st, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri in Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season. We’ll continue diving into all of the standalone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 16 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
How To Watch Texans vs. Chiefs
When: Saturday, December 21st at 1:00 pm ETWhere: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Channel: NBC/Peacock
Texans vs. Chiefs Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, December 18th. Look around for the best prices!Moneyline: Chiefs -185, Texans +154
Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-110), Texans +3.5 (-110)
Total: Over 41.5 (-110), Under 41.5 (-110)
Texans vs. Chiefs Analysis
The big story heading into this game is the health of Patrick Mahomes. The megastar suffered a high ankle sprain against the Browns last week, and a lot of people were concerned with him leaving early and then going for testing. Well, Mahomes has been practicing this week. And Thursday, we learned that Mahomes doesn’t have an injury designation for this one. That said, he’s going to be good to go. That’s probably part of the reason our DraftKings betting splits page and Circa betting splits page show a good amount of support for Kansas City. However, I’m going the other way with this one.Even with Mahomes is out there, I’m struggling to find reasons not to take the points with Houston. This Texans team has won three of its last four games, with last week’s 20-12 win over the Dolphins featuring an impressive defensive performance. Houston held Miami to 222 total yards in the game, and the Dolphins turned the ball over four times. The Texans will now look to stay rolling against a Chiefs team that isn’t nearly as good as its record suggests.
Going into Arrowhead Stadium and staying within a field goal is never easy, but the Houston defense will be the best unit on the field in this game. The Texans are third in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.068) this year. Houston is also second in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.051), meaning this team is well equipped to hold its own against Mahomes and this Kansas City offense. Not only is Derek Stingley Jr. one of the league’s best corners, but the Texans also have a defensive front that will get a lot of pressure on Mahomes. On top of that, Houston’s rushing defense is very good, as the team is sixth in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.147). All of that makes it hard to imagine the Chiefs offense marching down the field with ease. And it’s not like this team does that anyway. Kansas City is averaging only 336.3 total yards per game, and the team is scoring just 23.5 points per game.
Of course, the Texans offense hasn’t been great this season. C.J. Stroud has taken a small step back after an electric rookie season. However, I think Houston is going to find some success pounding away with Joe Mixon between the tackles. While it hasn’t always been efficient, Mixon has just been very productive as a workhorse this season. And if he can find some holes, Stroud will be in good shape as a passer. This Chiefs defense is just 15th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.053), and it’s very possible to beat them through the air.
Overall, it’s just hard not to like Houston’s defense to hold its own against Kansas City. And if Mahomes is compromised, the Texans will tee off on the Chiefs offense. And while I don’t love this Houston offense at the moment, the team should be able to do enough to give the team a chance to win.
It’s also pretty comforting that Houston is 8-5 straight-up and 9-4 against the spread versus teams with winning records under DeMeco Ryans. Meanwhile, Kansas City is just 49-51-1 ATS as a home favorite under Reid. That includes an 11-14 ATS mark over the last three seasons, so don’t make the mistake of thinking that stat doesn’t include the Super Bowl-winning Chiefs. Also, in that span, Kansas City is just 3-6 ATS versus teams with winning records.
Texans vs. Chiefs Player Props
Nico Collins Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-110)The Chiefs aren’t a bad defensive team, but their secondary can be a bit shaky. That’s not what you want against Collins, who has picked up right where he left off since returning from injury four games ago. This season, Collins has six games with at least 86 yards, which is impressive considering he has only played nine games. But Stroud has a ton of trust in Collins, who is big and does a great job of finding space in the defense. I don’t see that changing against Kansas City. Also, Stroud and Collins are usually good for a big play or two each game. If they connect on one of those, it’ll be hard for Collins not to flirt with 100 or so yards here.
Texans vs. Chiefs Pick
I think the Texans have a really good shot at winning this game outright, but I’m taking the points because the Chiefs are the Chiefs. Houston can outplay Kansas City for three quarters, but Mahomes and Co. are always a threat to find a way to steal a victory. But overall, I like what we have seen out of the Houston defense, and Kansas City is due for some losses soon. This feels like it could be one of them. That’s why I’m firing away with the Texans as a Week 16 NFL best bet.Bet: Texans +3.5 (-110)
